Due to the large volume production of Model 3 and global expansion, an increase of 55% year on year is unlikely.
Tesla recently reported its results for the fourth quarter and for the entire 2018 on the basis of which we can predict what will possibly reach the company in 2019.
Last year, Tesla has demonstrated extraordinary growth in production and sales, with the year almost as many electric cars as for all previous years.
Guide Tesla has provided its own forecast of what to expect from the supply of electric vehicles in 2019. In a letter to Tesla shareholders for the fourth quarter, management stated that it plans to deliver from 360 000 to 400 000 electric vehicles during the year. This is for 45-65% more compared to the same period last year, when it was delivered approximately 245 500 electric cars.
But can investors trust the guidance Tesla? In the end, the company missed key production targets and deliveries last year. Fortunately Tesla this time the conservative approach to their management.
Despite the fact that to achieve the goal for the supply of vehicles Tesla will need a 55% sales growth, a significant increase in performance, the company will not be required. The company delivered 90 966 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2018. This corresponds to annual sales of about $ 364 000 electric vehicles. In other words, to increase the annual supply by 48% compared to last year, everything you need Tesla, is to maintain the level of quarterly shipments in which it came out in 2018.
But is there a demand? 90 966 Tesla delivered in the 4th quarter, 63 359 occurred in Model 3, they were all taken to North America. In 2019 the Model 3 will be available in Europe and China, which significantly increases the demand on the electric car.
If you take into account the rapidly growing production of electric vehicles, Tesla recently announced the company’s desire to sell the Model 3 at lower prices, evaluation of increased deliveries by 55% year on year to 380 000 units starts to sound conservative.
To put 400,000 electric cars in 2019, the company may need to bring to the market the promised standard version of Model 3 for $ 35,000 US, which contributes to the expansion of client base and increase the demand for new.
Tesla reports that the cheaper version of the electric Model 3 (standard configuration) will be available in 4-6 months. However, investors should not expect that the standard version will be so soon. On the question of the promised Model $3 for 35 000 Twitter Musk said: “We are doing everything possible to launch it. This is a super difficult job.”
Recall, Tesla Model 3 announced the best-selling car in the premium segment in the United States.